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Primary entity blamed for General Kirillov assassination by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukrainian intelligence services • 25%
Domestic dissidents • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
No definitive blame assigned • 25%
Official statements from Russian authorities or credible news reports
Story
Russia Arrests Uzbek Suspect Recruited by Ukraine in General Kirillov's Moscow Assassination
Dec 18, 2024, 07:15 AM
Russian authorities have detained two suspects in connection with the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia's Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, and his aide. General Kirillov and his aide were killed in a bombing in Moscow on Tuesday. One of the suspects is a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen, born in 1995, who allegedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian intelligence services to carry out the attack. He admitted to arriving in Moscow on a mission, purchasing a scooter, and later acquiring materials for the bomb. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the arrests and is continuing the investigation to determine the involvement of other individuals in the terrorist act.
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No official blame assigned • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Internal Dissidents • 25%
Foreign Intelligence Agency • 25%
Internal Russian actors • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Foreign agents • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Ukrainian operatives • 25%
Internal Russian dissidents • 25%
No clear identification • 25%
Russian dissidents • 25%
Ukrainian GUR • 25%
A third-party group • 25%
Foreign Group • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Lone Actor • 25%
Domestic Group • 25%
Cyber retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military action against Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
No specific organization • 25%
Local neo-Nazi group • 25%
International neo-Nazi group • 25%
Act of domestic terrorism • 25%
Unsolved • 25%
Ukrainian involvement confirmed • 25%
Involvement of other foreign entities • 25%