Market
Primary Influence in Yekaterinburg Plot Identified by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Local neo-Nazi group • 25%
International neo-Nazi group • 25%
No specific organization • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or reports from the FSB or Russian government
Story
Russia's FSB Detains Four Teenagers for Alleged Terror Plot Involving Homemade Bombs in Yekaterinburg
Jan 4, 2025, 12:25 PM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has detained four teenagers suspected of planning a terrorist attack in Yekaterinburg. The suspects, born in 2007 and 2008, allegedly intended to detonate homemade bombs in crowded areas of the city. The FSB reported that the group was influenced by neo-Nazi ideologies and had subscribed to related Telegram channels. Two of the detained individuals are also accused of setting a police car on fire. The FSB seized components for an improvised explosive device (IED) and criminal cases have been initiated for the preparation of a terrorist act, as well as for the illegal storage and manufacture of explosives.
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No specific organization identified • 25%
A known neo-Nazi group • 25%
Other • 25%
An unknown terrorist organization • 25%
No definitive blame assigned • 25%
Domestic dissidents • 25%
Ukrainian intelligence services • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
Other • 25%
Organized crime • 25%
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Personal vendetta • 25%
Case still pending • 25%
Conviction on terrorism charges • 25%
Conviction on lesser charges • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Foreign Intelligence Agency • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Internal Dissidents • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
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Russian dissidents • 25%
A third-party group • 25%
No clear identification • 25%
Ukrainian GUR • 25%
Other foreign entities • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Internal Russian actors • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
International body • 25%
Ukrainian authorities • 25%
No official investigation • 25%
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Investigation ongoing • 25%
Multiple arrests and convictions • 25%