Market
Political relationship between Evo Morales and Luis Arce by end of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relationship improves • 25%
Relationship worsens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Publicly reconciled • 25%
Public statements from Evo Morales, Luis Arce, and Bolivian news reports
Story
Bolivian Judge Orders Arrest of Evo Morales for Alleged Trafficking and Abuse of 15-Year-Old, Freezes Assets
Jan 17, 2025, 08:53 PM
A Bolivian judge has ordered the arrest of former President Evo Morales after he failed to appear for a second time at a court hearing related to allegations of human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor. Morales, who governed Bolivia from 2006 to 2019, is accused of having a relationship with a 15-year-old girl in 2015, resulting in the birth of a child the following year. The court has also frozen Morales's assets and prohibited him from leaving the country. Morales denies the allegations, claiming they are politically motivated and part of a legal war against him. The case has escalated tensions between Morales and his former ally, current President Luis Arce, who confirmed the investigation against Morales in October 2024.
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Similar markets
Strengthened position • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Weakened position • 25%
Does not run • 25%
Disqualified • 25%
Wins presidency • 25%
Loses presidency • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Ongoing by end of 2025 • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Arrested • 25%
In hiding • 25%
Flees the country • 25%
Protests lead to Morales' return to political prominence • 25%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant impact • 25%
In Another Country • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Other • 25%
In Argentina • 25%
In Bolivia • 25%
In Mexico • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthens opposition • 25%
Weakens opposition • 25%
Strengthens Morales's allies • 25%
Fluctuates • 25%
Remains stable • 25%
Increases significantly • 25%
Decreases significantly • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Flees country • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Yes, illegally • 25%
Yes, legally • 25%
No, remains in Bolivia • 25%
No, but attempts to leave • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Charges Dropped • 25%
Case Ongoing • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%