Market
How will Morales's legal issues impact Bolivian politics by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthens opposition • 25%
Weakens opposition • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthens Morales's allies • 25%
Analysis from political experts and news agencies
Story
Bolivian Judge Orders Arrest of Former President Evo Morales on Human Trafficking and Sexual Abuse of Minor Charges
Jan 17, 2025, 09:07 PM
A Bolivian judge has ordered the arrest of former President Evo Morales on charges of human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor. Morales, who did not appear for a second court hearing, has been declared in contempt, and his assets have been frozen while he is prohibited from leaving the country. The case stems from allegations that Morales had a relationship with a 15-year-old girl in 2015, resulting in the birth of a daughter the following year. The Public Prosecutor's Office claims that the girl's parents consented to the relationship in exchange for political benefits. Morales denies the charges, asserting that a previous investigation into similar allegations was dismissed in 2020. If convicted, Morales faces a prison sentence of 10 to 15 years.
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Similar markets
Case dismissed • 25%
Ongoing by end of 2025 • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Convicted • 25%
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Acquitted • 25%
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Arrested • 25%
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Acquitted • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
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Disqualified • 25%
Wins presidency • 25%
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Majority Believe Innocent • 25%
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Public opinion divided • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Majority believe guilty • 25%
Majority believe innocent • 25%