Market
Bolivian public opinion on Evo Morales' case by end of 2025
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support Morales • 25%
Majority oppose Morales • 25%
Divided opinion • 25%
Majority indifferent • 25%
Public opinion polls conducted by Bolivian polling agencies
Story
Bolivian Judge Orders Arrest of Evo Morales for Alleged Trafficking and Abuse of 15-Year-Old, Freezes Assets
Jan 17, 2025, 08:53 PM
A Bolivian judge has ordered the arrest of former President Evo Morales after he failed to appear for a second time at a court hearing related to allegations of human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor. Morales, who governed Bolivia from 2006 to 2019, is accused of having a relationship with a 15-year-old girl in 2015, resulting in the birth of a child the following year. The court has also frozen Morales's assets and prohibited him from leaving the country. Morales denies the allegations, claiming they are politically motivated and part of a legal war against him. The case has escalated tensions between Morales and his former ally, current President Luis Arce, who confirmed the investigation against Morales in October 2024.
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Majority believe innocent • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Majority believe guilty • 25%
Public opinion divided • 25%
Majority Believe Guilty • 25%
Majority Believe Innocent • 25%
Divided Opinion • 25%
No Clear Opinion • 25%
Decreases significantly • 25%
Increases significantly • 25%
Remains stable • 25%
Fluctuates • 25%
Major protests • 25%
Minor protests • 25%
Public support for Morales • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Ongoing by end of 2025 • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Charges Dropped • 25%
Case Ongoing • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Flees country • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Weakens opposition • 25%
Strengthens Morales's allies • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthens opposition • 25%
Wins presidency • 25%
Disqualified • 25%
Loses presidency • 25%
Does not run • 25%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
Protests lead to Morales' return to political prominence • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant impact • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Flees the country • 25%
Arrested • 25%
In hiding • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Weakened position • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
Strengthened position • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%