Market
Outcome of U.S.-North Korea Diplomatic Efforts by End of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements and agreements reported by major news outlets
Story
Trump Calls North Korea 'Nuclear Power,' Cites 'Condo Capability' and 'Shoreline'
Jan 21, 2025, 01:14 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump, shortly after his inauguration, referred to North Korea as a 'nuclear power' and expressed optimism about his relationship with its leader, Kim Jong Un. Speaking in the Oval Office while signing executive orders, Trump stated that he had been very friendly with Kim, suggesting that the North Korean leader would be happy to see his return to the presidency. Trump's comments come as he anticipates a possible revival of direct diplomacy with North Korea, a country he described as having 'tremendous condo capability' and 'a lot of shoreline.'
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No Significant Change • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Denuclearization Agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks continue without resolution • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks stalled • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Small Deal on Nuclear Program • 25%
Complete Denuclearization Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Denuclearization talks progress • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Military response • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
New conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Successful transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
New regional conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%