Market
First U.S. policy change on immigration by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military flights • 25%
New bilateral agreement with Mexico • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Enhanced border security measures • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements, legislative actions, news reports
Story
Mexico Blocks U.S. Military Deportation Flight, Disrupting Trump's Immigration Plans
Jan 24, 2025, 11:23 PM
Mexico denied a U.S. military plane carrying deported migrants permission to land on Thursday, temporarily hindering the Trump administration's plans to repatriate immigrants to the country, according to NBC News and multiple sources. The refused flight was one of several scheduled deportation flights; two other C-17 military transports, each carrying 80 deportees from Guatemala, departed from Texas and Arizona. The denied flight, intended to deport immigrants to Mexico, was grounded after Mexican authorities refused landing permission. The incident may signal potential tensions between the U.S. and Mexico over immigration policies.
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Similar markets
Stricter deportation policies • 25%
More lenient policies • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stricter asylum rules • 25%
Enhanced visa checks • 25%
Expanded deportation criteria • 25%
Increased border patrols • 25%
New asylum policies • 25%
Revised visa regulations • 25%
Increased border security measures • 25%
Other • 25%
Stricter policies • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%
Looser policies • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
