Market
Outcome of U.S. efforts to acquire Greenland by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Greenland acquired by U.S. • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Efforts abandoned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
Greenland holds referendum • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Official government announcements from Denmark, Greenland, and the U.S., or credible news sources
Story
Trump Considers Force to Acquire Greenland for National Security, Faces Opposition from Local Leaders
Jan 13, 2025, 04:37 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed renewed interest in acquiring Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory, citing national security reasons. Trump has not ruled out using military or economic force to achieve this goal. His son, Donald Trump Jr., visited Greenland's capital, Nuuk, amid these discussions. Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede has rejected the idea of the island becoming part of the United States, emphasizing that Greenland's future should be decided by its residents. All five parties in Greenland's parliament have also voiced opposition to the territory joining the U.S. Greenland's strategic importance is heightened by its rich but largely untapped mineral resources and its position in the Arctic, where both Russia and China are increasing their presence.
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No official response • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
Formal rejection by Denmark/Greenland • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
No formal action taken • 25%
Rejected by Denmark • 25%
Accepted by Denmark • 25%
Withdrawn by U.S. • 25%
No Proposal Made • 25%
Purchase Agreement Reached • 25%
Offer Rejected by Denmark • 25%
No Formal Offer Made • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
No official proposal made • 25%
Purchase completed • 25%
Purchase rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Accepted by Denmark • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Under negotiation • 25%
Rejected by Denmark • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%