Market
Outcome of U.S. attempt to acquire Greenland by end of 2026
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful acquisition • 25%
Formal rejection by Denmark/Greenland • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No formal action taken • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland governments or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Revives Greenland Acquisition Plan, Citing Rare Earth Minerals and Strategic Arctic Importance
Jan 8, 2025, 04:21 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has reignited interest in acquiring Greenland, a mineral-rich and strategically significant territory of Denmark. Trump stated that Greenland could become part of the United States, saying, 'We're going to treat you well,' and has not ruled out using military or economic measures to achieve this. His son, Donald Trump Jr., recently visited the island, heightening speculation about U.S. intentions. Greenland, home to rare earth minerals, oil, and natural gas, is seen as critical for U.S. national security and economic interests, particularly due to its Arctic location and proximity to key shipping routes. Historically, the U.S. has sought to purchase Greenland, including a 2019 attempt by Trump, but past offers were rejected by Denmark. Greenland's government, led by Prime Minister Múte B. Egede, has reaffirmed that the island is not for sale, emphasizing its autonomy and push for eventual independence. Denmark provides an annual subsidy of nearly $1 billion to Greenland, which has a population of about 57,000. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also reiterated that Greenland's future lies with its people. The U.S. military already maintains a presence at the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, underscoring the island's strategic importance. The renewed interest in Greenland reflects broader geopolitical competition in the Arctic, with climate change opening new opportunities for resource exploitation and navigation.
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland acquired by U.S. • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Greenland holds referendum • 25%
Efforts abandoned • 25%
Greenland rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Rejected by Denmark • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Under negotiation • 25%
Accepted by Denmark • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
No official response • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No Formal Offer Made • 25%
Purchase Agreement Reached • 25%
Offer Rejected by Denmark • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Purchase completed • 25%
No official proposal made • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Purchase rejected • 25%
Accepted by Denmark • 25%
No Proposal Made • 25%
Withdrawn by U.S. • 25%
Rejected by Denmark • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
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Successful acquisition • 25%
Accepted • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No formal proposal made • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Negotiations start • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Greenland becomes U.S. territory • 25%
Greenland remains with Denmark • 25%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%