Market
Outcome of Trump's Ukraine peace efforts by May 2, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Ukraine•Keith Kellogg•The Wall Street Journal•Trump•Kellogg•America First Policy Institute•Russia•Russian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Official announcements from the involved parties and international organizations
Story
Trump Assigns Special Envoy Kellogg to End Ukraine War in 100 Days: WSJ
Jan 22, 2025, 07:33 AM
President Donald Trump has tasked his special envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, with ending the ongoing war within 100 days, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. Trump plans to personally oversee the peace negotiations, despite skepticism from analysts about the feasibility of resolving the conflict in such a short timeframe. Kellogg, known for his loyalty to Trump and his military background, co-authored a peace plan with the America First Policy Institute, which has been criticized for its perceived concessions to Russia. Russian officials have expressed doubt about the plan's viability and Kellogg's impartiality, given his daughter's involvement in humanitarian aid efforts for Ukraine.
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Stalemate • 25%
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Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
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