Market
Outcome of Trump's mediation in Russia-Ukraine conflict by end of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or credible international news sources
Story
Trump to Speak with Putin and Zelensky, Urges End to Ukraine "Carnage"
Dec 16, 2024, 05:25 PM
President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an effort to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. Expressing concern over the conflict, Trump stated, "Everyone is being killed... it's gotta stop." He emphasized the need for both leaders to come to an agreement, suggesting that Zelensky should be prepared to make a deal. Trump described resolving the Russia-Ukraine situation as more difficult than addressing issues in the Middle East and mentioned receiving signals from Ukraine indicating a desire to end the war.
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Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations postponed indefinitely • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement on certain issues • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Conflict ends • 25%
Conflict de-escalates • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Meeting postponed or canceled • 25%
No agreement, talks break down • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Summit canceled • 25%
Partial agreement on conflict resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Accepted by Russia and Ukraine • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict ends with peace agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Proposals modified • 25%
Proposals accepted • 25%
Proposals rejected • 25%
No decision • 25%
Meeting occurs without peace agreement • 25%
Meeting occurs and results in peace agreement • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
Meeting occurs but escalates conflict • 25%