Market
Outcome of Trump's Panama Canal statement by end of 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Panama reduces fees • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from involved parties, major news outlets
Story
Trump May Demand Return of Panama Canal Amid Concerns Over China's Influence
Dec 22, 2024, 12:37 AM
Former President Donald Trump announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States if Panama does not cease what he describes as overcharging US naval and merchant ships. In a statement posted on Truth Social on December 21, 2024, Trump accused Panama of charging "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and warned that the canal should not fall into the "wrong hands." He stated, "We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States." Trump expressed concern over China's influence in the region, noting that China has increased its foothold in Panama since the canal was transferred to Panamanian control in 1999 under President Jimmy Carter's administration. He emphasized the importance of the Panama Canal for US commerce and national security and suggested that he may take back exclusive control of the canal during his second term.
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Other outcome • 25%
U.S. reclaims control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No change in control • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No Change • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Panama reduces tolls • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
No change • 25%
U.S. reimposes control • 25%
Increased US military presence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change • 25%
Negotiations begin • 25%
Panama strengthens control • 25%
Rejection of U.S. claims • 25%
Open to negotiations • 25%
Seek international mediation • 25%
No official response • 25%
ALBA • 25%
Other • 25%
Organization of American States • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Shared control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful negotiation • 25%
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Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Protests escalate • 25%
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Other outcomes • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%