Market
China's influence in Panama Canal region by end of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets, official statements from China or Panama
Story
Trump May Demand Return of Panama Canal Amid Concerns Over China's Influence
Dec 22, 2024, 12:37 AM
Former President Donald Trump announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States if Panama does not cease what he describes as overcharging US naval and merchant ships. In a statement posted on Truth Social on December 21, 2024, Trump accused Panama of charging "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and warned that the canal should not fall into the "wrong hands." He stated, "We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States." Trump expressed concern over China's influence in the region, noting that China has increased its foothold in Panama since the canal was transferred to Panamanian control in 1999 under President Jimmy Carter's administration. He emphasized the importance of the Panama Canal for US commerce and national security and suggested that he may take back exclusive control of the canal during his second term.
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Maintain neutrality • 25%
Strengthen ties with China • 25%
Seek other international partnerships • 25%
Strengthen ties with U.S. • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama • 25%
China increases influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Panama strengthens control • 25%
U.S. increases influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Panamanian Control • 25%
Chinese Control • 25%
U.S. Control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
Other geopolitical impacts • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
