Market
Outcome of Gaza ceasefire deal negotiations by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
The outcome can be determined based on announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or mediators, corroborated by credible news sources such as BBC or The New York Times.
Story
Netanyahu Delays Cabinet Vote on Ceasefire Deal, Accuses Hamas of Last-Minute Crisis
Jan 16, 2025, 09:02 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, creating a last-minute crisis that prevents the completion of the agreement. Netanyahu's office stated that Hamas is backtracking on explicit understandings reached with mediators and Israel in an attempt to extort last-minute concessions. As a result, the Israeli Cabinet will not meet to approve the ceasefire deal until mediators confirm that Hamas has fully agreed to all elements of the agreement.
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No agreement • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
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Hostage release deal only • 25%
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Ceasefire collapses, conflict resumes • 25%
Temporary extension of current ceasefire • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%