Market
Number of suspected espionage drones detected in Germany by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-5 drones • 25%
6-10 drones • 25%
11-20 drones • 25%
More than 20 drones • 25%
Reports from German security agencies or government press releases
Story
Germany's Bundeswehr Authorized to Shoot Down Drones Amid Suspected Russian Espionage
Jan 14, 2025, 07:40 PM
Germany's cabinet has approved a draft law allowing the country's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, to shoot down drones over military sites and critical infrastructure. This decision comes in response to a surge in suspicious drone activity, which authorities suspect may be linked to Russian espionage efforts. The new legislation aims to address the increasing challenge posed by drones, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has heightened security concerns. The law requires parliamentary approval before it can be enacted.
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Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
11-15 incidents • 25%
More than 15 incidents • 25%
0-5 incidents • 25%
6-10 incidents • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Espionage • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
More than 15 • 25%
0-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
11-15 • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Increased Surveillance • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Action • 25%
Increased military security • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic action against Russia • 25%
No significant action • 25%