Market
Next major diplomatic intervention in Russia-Ukraine conflict by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Prisoner swap • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or credible international news sources
Story
Russia and Ukraine Conduct First Swap in Months, Exchange 150 Prisoners Each Mediated by UAE
Dec 30, 2024, 02:45 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted their first prisoner swap in over two months, exchanging 150 prisoners of war each in a deal mediated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Russian Defense Ministry announced on December 30, 2024, that 150 Russian soldiers were returned from Ukrainian captivity, while 150 Ukrainian soldiers were released to Ukraine. The UAE provided humanitarian mediation efforts to facilitate the exchange, which comes amid ongoing conflict between the two nations.
View original story
Similar markets
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
NATO • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
No major action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
EU Conference • 25%
NATO Summit • 25%
UN Assembly • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Significant Progress • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Led by the EU • 25%
Led by another country • 25%
No mediation efforts • 25%
Led by the U.S. • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased US support for Ukraine • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%