Market
Next major Russia-Ukraine diplomatic action by June 30, 2025?
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Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Russian Defense Ministry•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Ukrainians•Russian•Azovstal•Mariupol•Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant•Zmiinyi
Resolution / Starting Odds
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
No major action • 25%
Official announcements from Russian or Ukrainian governments or credible international news agencies
Story
Russia and Ukraine Exchange 300 Prisoners in UAE-Mediated Swap
Dec 30, 2024, 03:00 PM
On December 30, 2024, Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, with each side releasing prisoners of war in a deal mediated by the United Arab Emirates ahead of New Year's Eve. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 150 prisoners from each side were exchanged. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 189 Ukrainians, including military personnel and two civilians, were returned from Russian captivity. The released Ukrainian prisoners include defenders of Azovstal, Mariupol, the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and Zmiinyi (Snake) Island. This exchange marks one of the largest prisoner swaps between the two countries since the conflict began.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
Prisoner swap • 25%
Other • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
NATO • 25%
European Union • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
