Market
Major geopolitical change involving Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah by November 30, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran-Syria alliance weakens • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Increased tensions with Israel • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
US Envoy Hochstein: Iran's Withdrawal from Syria Weakens Hezbollah's Weapon Supply
Dec 7, 2024, 12:12 PM
Amos Hochstein, the US Special Envoy for Lebanon, has stated that the ongoing situation in Syria is creating a new weakness for Hezbollah. This development is making it more difficult for Iran to supply weapons to the Lebanese terror group, as Iran appears to be withdrawing from Syria. Hochstein's comments suggest that the dynamics in Syria are shifting, potentially affecting Hezbollah's capabilities and the broader geopolitical landscape involving major powers in Tel Aviv and Ankara.
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Iranian dominance • 25%
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Increased US involvement • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Increased Russian influence • 25%
Increased U.S. influence • 25%
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Other • 25%
New Syrian Government • 25%
Syrian Democratic Forces • 25%
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham • 25%
No clear dominant power • 25%
ISIS or other extremist groups • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Rebel forces • 25%
HTS • 25%
Other Rebel Groups • 25%
Foreign Powers • 25%
Assad Loyalists • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
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ISIS • 25%
Russian military • 25%
Assad regime forces • 25%
Kurdish forces • 25%
Pro-Iranian faction • 25%
Pro-Turkish faction • 25%
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Existing bases maintained • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
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Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Strengthening of Assad's regime • 25%
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Closer ties with Russia • 25%
Closer ties with China • 25%
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