Market
Main Outcome of Israel-Saudi Arabia Talks by December 31, 2025?
2
Israel•Saudi Arabia•Haaretz•Saudi•Mohammed bin Salman•Palestinian•Hamas•Gaza•Israeli Strategic Affairs•Ron Dermer•Biden•Trump•Palestinian Authority
Resolution / Starting Odds
Normalization Agreement Signed • 25%
Hostage Deal Only • 25%
Gaza Reconstruction Agreement Only • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Official statements from Israel and Saudi Arabia, major news outlets
Story
Israel and Saudi Arabia's MBS Agree on Vague Commitment to Palestinian State, Set Two-Phase Plan for Hostage Deal and Gaza Reconstruction
Dec 17, 2024, 06:11 PM
Israel and Saudi Arabia have recently achieved a breakthrough in their normalization talks, according to reports from Haaretz. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has softened his stance on the Palestinian state issue, no longer insisting on an explicit timetable for its establishment but accepting a vague commitment from Israel to a 'path towards Palestinian statehood.' This development could also facilitate a deal for the release of hostages held by Hamas and contribute to ending the war in Gaza. The negotiations, conducted discreetly by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, are being coordinated with both the Biden administration and President-elect Trump's team. The agreement is expected to unfold in two phases: the first involving the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a pause in fighting in Gaza, followed by the signing of the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, alongside a coalition including the Palestinian Authority, is set to lead the reconstruction efforts in Gaza, which is a key element of the agreement.
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No significant outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
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Normalization contingent on Palestinian statehood • 25%
Normalization contingent on Gaza ceasefire • 25%
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