Market
Impact of Assad's departure on Syria by end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•Assad•Syria•Russia•Trump•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Ukraine•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•China•Putin•Vladimir
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stability improves in Syria • 25%
New leadership emerges in Syria • 25%
Continued instability in Syria • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical experts and reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Urges Ceasefire After Assad Flees Syria; Calls on Russia, Ukraine, and China to Negotiate
Dec 8, 2024, 11:42 AM
President-elect Donald Trump responded to the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, announcing that "Assad is gone" after Russia withdrew its support and Assad fled the country. Trump noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a "weakened state" following these events. He called for an immediate ceasefire and the start of negotiations to end the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, mentioning that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "wants to make a deal." Emphasizing the devastating toll of the conflict, Trump stated that "hundreds of thousands of people are being killed" and that "cities have been emptied out and demolished." He urged China to help facilitate the negotiations, expressing his familiarity with Putin by saying, "I know Vladimir well. This is the time to act."
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Other • 25%
Resigns from presidency • 25%
Establishes government in exile • 25%
Remains in Syria • 25%
New regime established • 25%
Assad returns to power • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Ongoing civil unrest • 25%
Stable government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions against Syria • 25%
Support for government in exile • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Regime overthrown • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government established • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Resigned voluntarily • 25%