Market
How will the Supreme Court ruling on SB1 affect state bans by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in states with bans • 33%
Decrease in states with bans • 33%
No change • 34%
State legislative records and legal databases
Story
First Transgender Attorney to Argue at Supreme Court in Challenge to Tennessee's Gender-Affirming Care Ban
Dec 2, 2024, 05:20 PM
On Wednesday, December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a significant case challenging Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors. The court will consider whether the state's law, known as SB1, violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment by prohibiting health-care providers from facilitating a minor's transition to another sex. Chase Strangio, a transgender justice advocate with the American Civil Liberties Union, will become the first openly transgender attorney to argue before the Supreme Court. The outcome of the case could have broad implications, impacting thousands of transgender youths across the country, as similar bans have been enacted in at least 26 states, many of which are facing legal challenges. The decision may set a legal precedent affecting current and future laws targeting transgender health care.
View original story
Similar markets
Decrease in similar laws • 33%
Increase in similar laws • 33%
No significant change • 34%
No significant change in states' laws • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
More than 10 states repeal similar laws • 25%
More than 10 states uphold similar laws • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Mixed changes • 25%
S.B.1 upheld • 25%
Dismissed without ruling • 25%
S.B.1 struck down • 25%
Case partially upheld • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Remand for further consideration • 25%
Strike down the law • 25%
Uphold the law • 25%
Increase religious exemptions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Decrease religious exemptions • 25%
Law struck down • 25%
Law upheld • 25%
Law partially upheld/struck down • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Remand to lower court • 34%
Strike down the law • 33%
Uphold the law • 33%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Decrease in states restricting funding • 25%
Increase in states restricting funding • 25%
No significant change • 25%