Market
Will Supreme Court decision lead to changes in age verification laws in over 10 states by end of 2026?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
State legislative updates and legal publications
Story
Supreme Court Weighs First Amendment Challenge to Texas Age Verification Law for Online Pornography
Jan 15, 2025, 02:08 PM
On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in the case Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton, which challenges a Texas law requiring age verification for accessing pornographic websites. Defended by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the law mandates that adult websites must verify the age of their users to prevent minors from viewing explicit content. Opponents, including the ACLU, argue that the law violates the First Amendment rights of adults by imposing undue burdens on their access to constitutionally protected material and raising concerns about online anonymity and privacy. During the hearing, Justice Samuel Alito and other justices appeared sympathetic to Texas' position, expressing concerns about the ease with which minors can access online pornography. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for similar age verification laws enacted in over 20 states, shaping the future of online content regulation and the balance between protecting children and preserving free speech rights.
View original story
Similar markets
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Law upheld • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Law partially upheld/struck down • 25%
Law struck down • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Remand to lower court • 34%
Strike down the law • 33%
Uphold the law • 33%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in similar laws • 25%
Increase in similar laws • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Remand to lower courts • 25%
Strike down the law • 25%
Uphold the law • 25%