Market
What will be the outcome of the Supreme Court's decision on Tennessee's S.B.1 by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Uphold the law • 25%
Strike down the law • 25%
Remand for further consideration • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
The official ruling published by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Story
Supreme Court Appears Likely to Uphold Tennessee's Ban on Gender-Affirming Care for Transgender Minors
Dec 4, 2024, 12:24 PM
On December 4, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a case challenging Tennessee's S.B.1, a law enacted in 2023 that bans gender-affirming care for transgender minors, including puberty blockers, hormone therapies, and surgeries. The Biden administration and transgender rights advocates, including Chase Strangio, the first openly transgender man to argue before the court, contend that the ban violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. The outcome is significant as it could set a precedent affecting similar laws in more than 20 other states. During the arguments, the Supreme Court's conservative majority appeared skeptical of the challenge to Tennessee's law.
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Similar markets
Dismissed without ruling • 25%
S.B.1 upheld • 25%
S.B.1 struck down • 25%
Case partially upheld • 25%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban overturned • 33%
Partial ruling • 34%
Ban struck down • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban struck down • 25%
Case remanded to lower court • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Mixed reactions • 34%
Predominantly positive • 33%
Predominantly negative • 33%
Strike down the ban • 25%
Uphold the ban • 25%
Partial modification • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Dismisses the case • 25%
Partial ruling, modifying the ban • 25%
Upholds the ban • 25%
Strikes down the ban • 25%
No change • 34%
Increase in states with bans • 33%
Decrease in states with bans • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%