Market
What will be the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling on Tennessee's S.B.1 by June 30, 2025?
3
Tennessee•Chase Strangio•American Civil Liberties Union•ACLU•Supreme Court•Jonathan Skrmetti•Matt Rice•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
S.B.1 upheld • 25%
S.B.1 struck down • 25%
Case partially upheld • 25%
Dismissed without ruling • 25%
Official U.S. Supreme Court decision publication
Story
First Transgender Attorney to Argue Before Supreme Court in Tennessee's Transgender Youth Care Case
Dec 3, 2024, 12:28 PM
On Wednesday, December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a landmark case challenging Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors, known as S.B.1. The case will address whether the state's prohibition of treatments such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. Representing the challengers, Chase Strangio, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), will become the first openly transgender lawyer to argue before the Supreme Court. Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and Solicitor General Matt Rice will defend the state's position. The outcome of the case could have significant implications for similar laws enacted in at least 26 other states and may shape the future of transgender rights and access to medical care for minors and potentially adults in the United States.
View original story
Similar markets
Uphold the law • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Strike down the law • 25%
Remand for further consideration • 25%
Partial ruling • 34%
Ban overturned • 33%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban struck down • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Predominantly negative • 33%
Mixed reactions • 34%
Predominantly positive • 33%
Ban struck down • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case remanded to lower court • 25%
Uphold the ban • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Partial modification • 25%
Strike down the ban • 25%
Decrease in states with bans • 33%
Increase in states with bans • 33%
No change • 34%
Strikes down the ban • 25%
Partial ruling, modifying the ban • 25%
Upholds the ban • 25%
Dismisses the case • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%