Market
How will the political tension between the Brazilian government and the military resolve by December 31, 2025?
2
Brazil•Alexandre de Moraes•Walter Braga Netto•Mário Fernandes•Geraldo Alckmin•PGR•Paulo Gonet•Braga Netto•Federal Police•Jair Bolsonaro
Resolution / Starting Odds
Tensions resolved • 25%
Tensions persist • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official government statements or major news outlets.
Story
Brazil's Supreme Court Keeps Generals Detained Over Alleged Plot Against Lula, Alckmin, and Moraes
Dec 26, 2024, 05:15 PM
Brazil's Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes has decided to maintain the detention of Generals Walter Braga Netto and Mário Fernandes, both investigated in connection with an alleged plot to overthrow the government and assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Minister Alexandre de Moraes himself. The Attorney General's Office (PGR), led by Paulo Gonet, opposed the release of the generals, arguing against revoking their preventive detention. The defense of Braga Netto had previously requested his release, asserting that he is not 'disobedient' and has no history of disobedience to court orders. The generals are among the 37 individuals indicted by the Federal Police in the 'coup plot' inquiry, which includes former President Jair Bolsonaro.
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Oppose the investigation • 25%
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Unaware of investigation • 25%
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Ongoing investigation • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Acknowledgement of involvement • 25%
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Military restructuring • 25%
Judicial reforms • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
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Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged support for Lula • 25%
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Significant political unrest • 25%
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Further Arrests • 25%
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Ongoing Investigation • 25%
Investigation Closed • 25%
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Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
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Yoon resigns • 25%
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No resolution by year-end • 25%
Yoon impeached • 25%
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Other • 25%
Mid-ranking officer • 25%
Low-ranking officer • 25%
High-ranking officer • 25%
No new implications • 25%