Market
How will regional security be affected by the SDF's proposal by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved security • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsened security • 25%
Unclear • 25%
Reports from international security agencies or credible news sources
Story
SDF Proposes Demilitarized Zone in Kobani to Address Turkey's Security Concerns
Dec 17, 2024, 07:32 PM
Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has announced his readiness to establish a demilitarized zone in the city of Kobani, located near the Syria-Turkey border. This proposal includes the redistribution of security forces under U.S. supervision and presence. The initiative aims to address Turkey's security concerns and ensure lasting stability in the region. This move is part of the SDF's commitment to achieving a comprehensive ceasefire throughout Syria.
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Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
Strengthened SDF alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other geopolitical shifts • 25%
No integration • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full integration into Syrian Defense Ministry • 25%
Integration as a distinct military bloc • 25%
Calls for further negotiations • 25%
Support for Syrian government stance • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support for SDF stance • 25%
SDF gains limited leadership role • 25%
SDF gains significant joint leadership role • 25%
SDF gains no leadership role • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved diplomatic relations in the region • 25%
Escalation leading to a military conflict • 25%
Increased military tensions in the region • 25%
No significant change in regional security • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved security • 25%
Stable situation • 25%
Increased support for Iran • 25%
New alliance against Israel • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased Hezbollah/Iran influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Israeli influence • 25%
Increased Syrian influence • 25%
Accepted • 25%
Rejected with modifications • 25%
Rejected outright • 25%
Pending decision • 25%
Full integration • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Partial integration • 25%
Other • 25%