Market
How will North Korea-Russia diplomatic relations change by December 31, 2025, following soldier capture?
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Ukrainian•North Korean•Russia•Kursk•Kyiv•Ukraine•Russian•Tuva Republic•Volodymyr Zelenskyy•North Korea
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened alliance • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other diplomatic developments • 25%
Official diplomatic statements or credible news reports
Story
Ukraine Captures Two North Korean Soldiers in Kursk Region
Jan 11, 2025, 04:00 PM
Ukrainian forces have captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia's western Kursk region, marking a significant development in the ongoing conflict. The soldiers, who were wounded during their capture, have been transported to Kyiv for interrogation. One of the soldiers, a rifleman born in 2005, claimed he thought he was going for training rather than to fight in the war against Ukraine. He was found with a Russian military ID card registered to another person from Russia's Tuva Republic, issued last autumn after participating in a one-week training event with Russian forces. The second soldier, a scout sniper born in 1999, has been serving since 2016. Both soldiers received medical treatment upon capture and are being held in conditions that meet international law requirements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of the world knowing the truth about the conflict, stating that Russian and North Korean forces often execute wounded soldiers to erase evidence of North Korea's involvement in the war.
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No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations with China • 25%
Deteriorated relations with South Korea • 25%
Improved relations with Russia • 25%
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International sanctions • 25%
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Increased military aid to Russia • 25%
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Acknowledge but downplay • 25%
Deny involvement • 25%
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Acknowledge and justify • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
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No significant development • 25%
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Enhanced missile testing • 25%
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