Market
How will New Glenn's performance compare to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy by the end of 2025?
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Blue Origin•New Glenn•Launch Complex 36•Florida•Blue Ring Pathfinder•Defense Department•Jacklyn•Atlantic Ocean•Jeff Bezos•SpaceX
Resolution / Starting Odds
Better than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Equivalent to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Worse than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Industry analysis reports or space news outlets
Story
Blue Origin's 320-Foot New Glenn Launches Monday, Aims to Challenge SpaceX
Jan 11, 2025, 09:49 PM
After more than a decade of development, Blue Origin's heavy-lift reusable rocket, New Glenn, standing 320 feet tall and powered by seven BE-4 engines, is set for its inaugural launch from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Initially scheduled for January 10, the launch was postponed due to unfavorable sea conditions for booster recovery and is now targeted for no earlier than Monday, January 13, with a three-hour window opening at 1 a.m. EST (0600 UTC). The mission will carry Blue Origin's 'Blue Ring Pathfinder' spacecraft, a Defense Department-funded prototype satellite, into orbit. Blue Origin will also attempt to recover the rocket's first-stage booster by landing it on its ship 'Jacklyn' in the Atlantic Ocean. This launch marks a significant step for Jeff Bezos's company in challenging SpaceX's dominance in the commercial launch market.
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Similar markets
Equal number of launches • 25%
Neither launches again in 2025 • 25%
New Glenn surpasses Falcon Heavy in launches • 25%
Falcon Heavy maintains more launches • 25%
Equal to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Less than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Not comparable • 25%
Greater than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Both are equal • 25%
New Glenn exceeds Falcon 9 • 25%
Falcon 9 exceeds New Glenn • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
New Glenn has higher capacity • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
Falcon 9 has higher capacity • 25%
Both have similar capacity • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Failed orbit and landing • 25%
Successful orbit and landing • 25%
Successful orbit, failed landing • 25%
Failed orbit, successful landing • 25%
Partial Success • 25%
Mission Cancelled • 25%
Failure • 25%
Success • 25%
Arianespace • 25%
Other • 25%
SpaceX • 25%
United Launch Alliance • 25%
Minor increase (<5%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Other • 25%
Commercial satellite deployment • 25%
Successful booster landing • 25%
Crewed mission announcement • 25%
11-15 flights • 25%
More than 15 flights • 25%
6-10 flights • 25%
0-5 flights • 25%
Successful flight but failed landing • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Successful flight and landing • 25%