Market
How will Blue Origin's New Glenn compare to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy in terms of launches by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New Glenn surpasses Falcon Heavy in launches • 25%
Falcon Heavy maintains more launches • 25%
Equal number of launches • 25%
Neither launches again in 2025 • 25%
Industry analysis reports and launch records
Story
Blue Origin's 98-Meter New Glenn Rocket Set for Uncrewed Maiden Flight from Cape Canaveral on January 8
Jan 5, 2025, 11:40 AM
Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, is set to launch its New Glenn rocket for the first time, aiming to challenge SpaceX's dominance in the space industry. The rocket, standing at approximately 98 meters tall, is scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. This maiden flight, which will be uncrewed, is a significant step for Blue Origin as it seeks to enter the market for launching heavy commercial and military satellites, as well as missions to the Moon and Mars. The New Glenn rocket is designed to be partially reusable, with plans to recover and reuse its first-stage booster, similar to SpaceX's approach. The launch window for this inaugural flight is set for January 8, with a backup date on January 10.
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Similar markets
Worse than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Better than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Equivalent to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Less than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Greater than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Equal to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Not comparable • 25%
New Glenn has higher capacity • 25%
Falcon 9 has higher capacity • 25%
Both have similar capacity • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
0-2 launches • 25%
6-8 launches • 25%
3-5 launches • 25%
9 or more launches • 25%
More than 8 launches • 25%
0-2 launches • 25%
3-5 launches • 25%
6-8 launches • 25%
New Glenn exceeds Falcon 9 • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
Both are equal • 25%
Falcon 9 exceeds New Glenn • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Minor increase (<5%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Failed orbit, successful landing • 25%
Successful orbit, failed landing • 25%
Successful orbit and landing • 25%
Failed orbit and landing • 25%
Two • 25%
Three or more • 25%
One • 25%
Zero • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
6-10 flights • 25%
11-15 flights • 25%
More than 15 flights • 25%
0-5 flights • 25%
