Market
By end of 2025, how will New Glenn's payload capacity compare to Falcon 9?
2
Blue Origin•Jeff Bezos•New Glenn•Atlantic•New Glenn rocket•SpaceX•Earth•Launch Complex 36•Florida•Blue Ring Pathfinder•Blue Ring•Jacklyn
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Glenn has higher capacity • 25%
Falcon 9 has higher capacity • 25%
Both have similar capacity • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
Official specifications from Blue Origin and SpaceX
Story
Blue Origin Delays Inaugural New Glenn Launch to January 12, Aims for 320-Foot Rocket Liftoff from Cape Canaveral
Jan 9, 2025, 01:24 PM
Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, has postponed the inaugural launch of its 98-meter tall, reusable New Glenn rocket to no earlier than January 12, 2025, due to high sea states in the Atlantic where the company plans to land its booster. The launch was originally scheduled for January 10. The New Glenn rocket, standing at 320 feet tall and powered by seven BE-4 engines producing 3.9 million pounds of thrust, is designed to compete with SpaceX's offerings, particularly the Falcon 9, in the orbital launch market. The rocket, capable of carrying 45 tonnes to low-Earth orbit, is set to lift off from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida during a three-hour window opening at 1 a.m. EST. The mission, named NG-1, aims to reach Earth's orbit safely and carry the Blue Ring Pathfinder as its payload, testing technology for the future Blue Ring spacecraft designed for satellite deployment. Blue Origin also plans to recover the first stage of the rocket on a barge named Jacklyn in the Atlantic.
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Similar markets
Data unavailable • 25%
Both are equal • 25%
Falcon 9 exceeds New Glenn • 25%
New Glenn exceeds Falcon 9 • 25%
Not comparable • 25%
Less than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Equal to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Greater than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Worse than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Better than Falcon Heavy • 25%
Equivalent to Falcon Heavy • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
New Glenn surpasses Falcon Heavy in launches • 25%
Equal number of launches • 25%
Neither launches again in 2025 • 25%
Falcon Heavy maintains more launches • 25%
Less than 50% capacity used • 25%
50-75% capacity used • 25%
Full capacity used • 25%
75-100% capacity used • 25%
Test payload • 25%
Scientific equipment • 25%
Other • 25%
Satellite • 25%
Commercial satellite deployment • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful booster landing • 25%
Crewed mission announcement • 25%
6-10 flights • 25%
11-15 flights • 25%
More than 15 flights • 25%
0-5 flights • 25%
Failed orbit, successful landing • 25%
Successful orbit and landing • 25%
Successful orbit, failed landing • 25%
Failed orbit and landing • 25%
Other • 25%
Amazon's Kuiper satellite • 25%
NASA payload • 25%
European Space Agency payload • 25%
Second orbital launch • 25%
New payload announcement • 25%
Partnership announcement • 25%
Second static fire test • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Other • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%