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How will Iranian proxy military activity change by December 31, 2025?
2
Iran•Middle East•Donald Trump•White House•The Telegraph•Iranian•Tehran•Trump•Iraq•Yemen•American•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international monitoring bodies or major news outlets
Story
Iran Directs Middle East Proxies to Exercise Caution Amid Trump's Return, Citing Existential Threat
Jan 26, 2025, 10:34 AM
Iran has instructed its proxy forces across the Middle East to exercise caution due to fears of an existential threat following Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to The Telegraph. A senior Iranian official in Tehran stated that forces and allies in the region have been directed to act cautiously, feeling threatened by Trump's return. In Iraq and Yemen, these forces have been specifically told not to target American assets and to avoid using Iranian weapons. They have been instructed to maintain defensive positions and refrain from actions that could provoke the United States or its allies.
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Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Increased activity • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Decreased activity • 33%
Increased naval drills • 25%
Focus on missile development • 25%
Enhanced cyber capabilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
Strengthened capabilities • 25%
Action against proxies in Yemen • 25%
No military action • 25%
Action against proxies in Iraq • 25%
Direct action against Iran • 25%
No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Decreased military involvement • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Strategic shift towards peace • 25%
Increased military aggression • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%