Market
Iran's proxies engage in military action against U.S. or allies by June 30, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Iranian•United States•The Telegraph•Tehran•Trump•Gulf Cooperation Council•GCC•Iran•Houthi movement
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense
Story
Iran Instructs Proxies to Exercise Caution Amid Existential Threat from Trump's Return, Facing GCC-Iran Challenges and Houthi Tensions
Jan 26, 2025, 09:39 AM
In the wake of Donald Trump's return to the presidency, Iranian officials are reportedly preparing for potential heightened tensions with the United States. A report from The Telegraph indicates that Tehran perceives an existential threat from Trump's administration and has instructed its regional proxies to act with caution. This comes as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran navigate new challenges in 2025, including the ongoing tensions with the Houthi movement. A senior Iranian official mentioned that forces and allies have been directed to avoid actions that could provoke the U.S. or its allies, reflecting a strategic shift in response to Trump's leadership.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 34%
Increased activity • 33%
Decreased activity • 33%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Other • 25%
No Change • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced tensions • 25%
No military action • 25%
Action against proxies in Iraq • 25%
Action against proxies in Yemen • 25%
Direct action against Iran • 25%
