Market
How many Assad supporters will seek asylum in Germany by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 500 • 25%
501 to 1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Statistics from German immigration authorities
Story
Germany Warns Assad Regime Supporters Against Seeking Refuge, Vows Full Force of Law
Dec 15, 2024, 06:58 AM
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Interior Minister Nancy Faeser have issued a stern warning to supporters of the ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against seeking refuge in Germany. Baerbock emphasized that Germany would hold all regime henchmen accountable for their heinous crimes with the full force of the law. This warning comes in the context of a rebel alliance, led by Islamists, taking power in Syria, leading to Assad's flight to Russia. Germany has already convicted several former Syrian officials under the principle of universal jurisdiction for crimes committed during Assad's rule. The ministers highlighted Germany's vigilance at its borders, aiming to deter Assad's supporters from fleeing to the country. This stance is part of a broader message from German officials that well-integrated Syrian refugees are welcome to stay, while those involved in atrocities will face prosecution. There are currently around 975,000 Syrians in Germany, and border checks are in place to prevent the entry of Assad's henchmen.
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501 to 1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 500 • 25%
More than 30,000 • 25%
20,001 to 30,000 • 25%
10,000 to 20,000 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
Other • 25%
Majority approvals • 25%
Equal approvals and rejections • 25%
Majority rejections • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Not resumed • 25%
Resumed with stricter criteria • 25%
Resumed without changes • 25%
Resumed with more lenient criteria • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Increase support • 25%
Decrease support • 25%
Initiate deportations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved security in Syria • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Domestic political changes • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Critical • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
No attempts made • 25%
Widespread success in seeking refuge • 25%
Some attempts successful • 25%
Attempts made but prevented • 25%