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Formal talks between Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and Beijing by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Taiwan's government or international diplomatic channels
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Taiwan Reports First Chinese 'Combat Patrol' of 2025 with 22 Aircraft, Including J-16 Fighter Jets
Jan 2, 2025, 06:04 AM
Taiwan's defense ministry reported that 22 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighter jets, and warships conducted the first 'combat patrol' of 2025 around the island on Thursday morning. This military activity followed comments from Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who reiterated his willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing. The aircraft were detected in the northern, central, southwestern, and eastern air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of Taiwan, with 18 of them crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's forces monitored and responded to the situation accordingly.
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Other • 25%
Visit a neighboring country • 25%
Engage in talks with U.S. officials • 25%
Address the United Nations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
Japan • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Weakened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Resignation of current leadership • 25%
Other political changes • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
