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Market
Level of military escalation following the UAV interception by August 2024
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
No escalation • 33%
Minor skirmishes • 33%
Significant military conflict • 33%
International security reports and news media
Story
Israeli Air Force Intercepts UAV Approaching From the East
May 6, 2024, 04:09 AM
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) successfully intercepted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that approached Israel from the east overnight. The UAV was monitored by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers and was determined not to pose a threat. Consequently, no sirens were activated, and there were no reports of injuries or damage.
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Significant escalation leading to broader conflict • 25%
Moderate escalation without broad conflict • 25%
Minimal impact with tensions easing • 25%
No change in current tensions • 25%
No significant change • 33%
Increased tensions without military action • 33%
Limited military skirmishes • 34%
De-escalation through talks • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
Significant escalation • 25%
Minor escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Complete cessation • 25%
Reduction in intensity • 25%
Continuation at same level • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Military escalation • 33%
Diplomatic measures • 33%
No significant action • 34%
Increase in military tension • 33%
Status quo maintained • 34%
De-escalation of military activities • 33%
Significantly escalates • 33%
No significant change • 34%
De-escalates conflict • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
New Peace Negotiations • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%