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Market
Key challenge in ISS deorbit vehicle development by 2027?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Funding issues • 25%
Technical difficulties • 25%
Regulatory hurdles • 25%
Supply chain delays • 25%
NASA official announcements, SpaceX press releases, industry reports
Story
NASA Awards Elon Musk's SpaceX $843M Contract for ISS Deorbit Vehicle by 2030
Jun 26, 2024, 10:00 PM
NASA has awarded SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, an $843 million contract to develop and deliver the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle. This vehicle will provide the capability to safely deorbit the International Space Station (ISS) and ensure the avoidance of risk to populated areas. The deorbit mission is planned for around 2030, marking the end of the ISS's operational life. SpaceX's role will be crucial in guiding the ISS through its reentry and ensuring a controlled and safe deorbit process, culminating in its fiery demise.
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Technical design issues • 25%
Funding and budget constraints • 25%
Regulatory and safety approvals • 25%
Supply chain and manufacturing delays • 25%
Hybrid propulsion • 25%
Chemical propulsion • 25%
Electric propulsion • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Completion of design phase • 25%
First successful test flight • 25%
Full operational readiness • 25%
None of the above by end of 2026 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful Deployment • 25%
Delayed Deployment • 25%
Canceled • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Controlled Descent • 33%
Uncontrolled Descent • 33%
Breaking into Multiple Segments • 33%