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Market
International diplomatic outcomes by December 31?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 33%
Peace negotiations initiated • 33%
No significant diplomatic progress • 34%
Official announcements from international bodies like the UN, EU, US State Department, or verified news reports
Story
Russia Fires Three Kinzhal Hypersonic Missiles at Kyiv Tonight
Jun 12, 2024, 01:26 AM
Russia's military has fired Kinzhal hypersonic missiles targeting Kyiv, Ukraine's capital city. Reports indicate that at least three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles were involved in the attack. Additionally, cruise missiles and drones were reported to have hit Kyiv tonight.
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Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 33%
No • 33%
Limited • 34%
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Temporary truce • 33%
No agreement reached • 34%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Deterioration of Russia-West relations • 33%
No change in diplomatic relations • 33%
Improvement in diplomatic relations due to transparency • 34%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current status • 25%
Reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful • 33%
Partially Successful • 34%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Successful release of hostages • 50%
No significant progress • 50%
Complete Resolution • 34%
Partial Resolution • 33%
No Resolution • 33%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Further negotiations scheduled • 25%
Increased international support for Ukraine • 25%