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Impact of border security bill vote on Democratic incumbents in 2024 elections
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Boosts Democratic incumbents • 33%
Hurts Democratic incumbents • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Election results and expert analysis
Story
Schumer Announces Senate Vote on Bipartisan Border Security Bill Expected to Fail This Week
May 19, 2024, 10:51 PM
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has announced that the Senate will vote this week on a bipartisan border security bill, which had been negotiated earlier this year but was previously blocked by Republicans. The bill aims to address issues related to border security and the flow of dangerous drugs like fentanyl. Schumer's move is seen as an effort to pressure Republicans and highlight the differences between the two parties on border security. The bill is expected to face bipartisan opposition and is likely to fail, with some Republicans criticizing it as insufficient for securing the border and others viewing it as political theater. Law enforcement officials have emphasized the need for more resources to combat drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, which has been responsible for numerous deaths across the country. The House passed the Secure the Border Act on May 11, 2023, and it has been sitting on Senator Schumer’s desk for 374 days. Trump had urged the GOP to kill this bill, saying “blame it on me.” The bill was previously blocked by a filibuster.
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Significantly affects election outcomes • 33%
Moderately affects election outcomes • 33%
Little to no effect on election outcomes • 34%
Positive for Democrats • 33%
Negative for Democrats • 33%
No Significant Impact • 34%
Increases Democratic votes • 33%
Benefits Republican opposition • 33%
No significant impact on election • 34%
Negatively impacted • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Positively impacted • 34%
Negatively impacts Democrat candidate • 33%
No significant impact on election • 33%
Boosts Republican candidate • 34%
Boosts Incumbent Party • 25%
Damages Incumbent Party • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Polarizes Voters • 25%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Unexpected positive impact • 34%
Democrats gain seats • 33%
Republicans gain seats • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Negatively impacts incumbents • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Positively impacts incumbents • 34%
Negatively influenced Trump's re-election • 33%
Positively influenced Trump's re-election • 33%
Had no significant influence on the election • 34%
Positive impact for proponents • 25%
Negative impact for proponents • 25%
Positive impact for opponents • 25%
Negative impact for opponents • 25%
Significantly improve • 33%
Remain the same • 33%
Significantly worsen • 33%