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How will the ERS affect the US trade balance by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
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Official trade reports or economic analysis publications
Story
Trump to Launch External Revenue Service on January 20 to Collect Tariffs from Foreign Sources
Jan 14, 2025, 04:57 PM
President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to create a new department called the External Revenue Service (ERS) to collect tariffs, duties, and all revenue from foreign sources. Set to commence on January 20, 2025, the ERS aims to shift the tax burden away from American citizens by focusing on revenue collection from foreign entities. "For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)," Trump stated. "We will begin charging those that make money off of us with trade, and they will start paying, finally, their fair share." The establishment of the ERS indicates a move towards imposing tariffs and duties on foreign imports to generate revenue.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
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Trade war • 25%
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Increased tensions • 25%
Increase in exports • 25%
Data unclear or mixed • 25%
No change in exports • 25%
Decrease in exports • 25%
Worsened trade balance for Canada • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Improved trade balance for Canada • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Trade surplus achieved • 25%
Trade deficit decreases • 25%
Trade deficit increases • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
Mexico • 25%