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How will Taiwan-China diplomatic relations be affected by the protest incident by Jan 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
News reports from international and local media, statements from Taiwan and China's foreign ministries
Story
Taiwan Deports Two Chinese Nationals for Harassing Hong Kong Outlanders' Protest on China's National Day
Oct 3, 2024, 05:03 AM
On October 1, 2024, Chinese tourists in Taipei disrupted a peaceful protest held by Hong Kongers associated with the Hong Kong Outlanders group. The protesters were demonstrating when the Chinese nationals harassed them, knocked down several flags, and declared that Taiwan and Hong Kong belong to China. The head of Hong Kong Outlanders attributed the behavior to 'China's brainwashing education'. The Chinese tourists were later identified as the children of a Chinese spouse married to a Taiwanese man, visiting their mother in Taiwan. Taiwan's government responded by deporting the two Chinese nationals involved in the harassment.
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Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Strengthening ties with US • 25%
Strengthening ties with Japan • 25%
Strengthening ties with EU • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deportation • 25%
Fines • 25%
Detention • 25%
No action • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
Strong condemnation of Russia • 25%
Increased support for Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
De-escalation and dialogue initiated • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Formal intervention by a third party • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
