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How will mediators be perceived in terms of the ceasefire's success or failure by the end of the six-week period?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Mediators credited for success • 25%
Mediators blamed for failure • 25%
Mediators' role neutral • 25%
No consensus on mediators' role • 25%
Statements from involved parties, media analysis, and reports from international relations experts
Story
Blinken Confident Israel-Hamas Gaza Ceasefire Will Start Sunday, Mediated by U.S., Qatar, Egypt
Jan 16, 2025, 04:39 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza will begin on Sunday as planned, despite a last-minute issue that delayed the Israeli government's approval of the deal. The ceasefire and hostage release agreement, mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, aims to halt 15 months of conflict. Blinken noted that negotiators are addressing the final details, which he referred to as a 'loose end.' The deal includes a six-week initial ceasefire, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
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Qatar • 25%
Egypt • 25%
United States • 25%
Joint effort • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Broad international criticism • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Significant Role • 25%
No Role • 25%
Minor Role • 25%
Critical Role • 25%
Other entities • 25%
United States • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Both Qatar and United States • 25%
Positive from EU • 25%
Positive from US • 25%
Negative from EU • 25%
Negative from US • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
Egypt plays the key role • 25%
Qatar plays the key role • 25%
US plays the key role • 25%
All equally contribute • 25%
United States • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Other • 25%
Extended • 25%
Broken • 25%
Renegotiated • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%