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How will Iran's influence in the Middle East through proxy forces change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
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Other developments • 25%
Reports from international think tanks or credible news agencies
Story
Macron: Iran's Nuclear Program Nears Point of No Return; Urges Snapback Sanctions Before October 2025
Jan 6, 2025, 12:34 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Monday that Iran's nuclear program is nearing the point of no return, highlighting Tehran's acceleration of its nuclear activities as a main strategic and security challenge in the Middle East and beyond. Speaking during his annual address to ambassadors, Macron emphasized the need for strategic discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration regarding Iran, suggesting that Western leaders may need to consider reimposing snapback sanctions before their expiration in October 2025. He also cited Iran's support for Russia's war against Ukraine, backing of dangerous groups in the region, and deployment of proxy forces to Africa as additional concerns.
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No significant change • 25%
Iran isolated • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
No statement made • 25%
Iranian influence denied • 25%
Iranian influence confirmed • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Increase in influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Moderate decrease • 25%
Increased involvement in Iraq • 25%
Increased involvement in Syria • 25%
Increased involvement in Yemen • 25%
Other or no significant change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Successful reduction • 25%
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No change • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
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New Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
