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Governance and Stability in Niger After U.S. Withdrawal
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improvement in governance and stability • 25%
Deterioration in governance and stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Initial instability followed by improvement • 25%
Reports from international governance and stability monitoring organizations, major news outlets.
Story
U.S. to Withdraw 1,100 Troops from Niger, Ending Long-Resisted Presence
Apr 20, 2024, 12:10 AM
The U.S. has agreed to withdraw its military personnel from Niger, involving more than 1,100 service members, following demands from the Nigerien government and pressure from U.S. lawmakers. This decision comes amid reports of U.S. troops being stranded without adequate supplies, unable to receive mail or medicine, and facing significant risks. The troop withdrawal was confirmed by multiple sources including U.S. officials and media reports. The move marks a significant shift in the Biden administration's policy in the Sahel region, where the U.S. has maintained a military presence for counterterrorism efforts. The decision, which the Biden administration had long resisted, was influenced by protests in Niger's capital, Niamey, where hundreds demanded the departure of U.S. forces, and by internal reports of the troops' dire conditions.
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Stable • 25%
Mild instability • 25%
Significant instability • 25%
Improved stability • 25%
Increase in regional security threats • 33%
No significant change in security situation • 34%
Improvement in regional security • 33%
Strengthen local defenses • 33%
Seek other international partnerships • 33%
Reduced military capacity • 34%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
New strategic alignment • 25%
Fully restored • 25%
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Further deteriorated • 25%
Increase in military investment by other countries • 25%
Neutral/no change in foreign military presence • 25%
Decrease in overall foreign military presence • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts instead of military • 25%
Increased instability • 34%
Stability maintained • 33%
Improved stability • 33%
No further involvement • 33%
Advisory roles only • 33%
Active military operations in other countries • 34%