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Market
Future of U.S. Foreign Policy in Sahel Post-Niger Withdrawal
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in diplomatic efforts • 25%
Reduction in overall presence • 25%
Shift focus to other regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical experts and official U.S. government policy announcements.
Story
U.S. to Withdraw 1,100 Troops from Niger, Ending Long-Resisted Presence
Apr 20, 2024, 12:10 AM
The U.S. has agreed to withdraw its military personnel from Niger, involving more than 1,100 service members, following demands from the Nigerien government and pressure from U.S. lawmakers. This decision comes amid reports of U.S. troops being stranded without adequate supplies, unable to receive mail or medicine, and facing significant risks. The troop withdrawal was confirmed by multiple sources including U.S. officials and media reports. The move marks a significant shift in the Biden administration's policy in the Sahel region, where the U.S. has maintained a military presence for counterterrorism efforts. The decision, which the Biden administration had long resisted, was influenced by protests in Niger's capital, Niamey, where hundreds demanded the departure of U.S. forces, and by internal reports of the troops' dire conditions.
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No further involvement • 33%
Advisory roles only • 33%
Active military operations in other countries • 34%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
New strategic alignment • 25%
Increased presence in other African countries • 25%
Reduced overall presence in Africa • 25%
Shift to non-military forms of engagement • 25%
Maintain current levels but relocate bases • 25%
Increase in regional security threats • 33%
No significant change in security situation • 34%
Improvement in regional security • 33%
Increase in military investment by other countries • 25%
Neutral/no change in foreign military presence • 25%
Decrease in overall foreign military presence • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts instead of military • 25%
No presence • 33%
Reduced presence • 33%
Significant presence • 33%
Strengthen local defenses • 33%
Seek other international partnerships • 33%
Reduced military capacity • 34%
Counterterrorism • 25%
Training and support • 25%
Intelligence gathering • 25%
None • 25%
Fully restored • 25%
Partially restored • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Further deteriorated • 25%
Stable • 25%
Mild instability • 25%
Significant instability • 25%
Improved stability • 25%