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Market
Future U.S. military role in West Africa post-Niger withdrawal
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
No further involvement • 33%
Advisory roles only • 33%
Active military operations in other countries • 34%
U.S. military strategy documents and official statements
Story
US to Withdraw Troops from Niger by September 15, 2024
May 19, 2024, 02:16 PM
The United States and Niger have agreed on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger by September 15, 2024. This decision follows a visit to Niamey by a U.S. military delegation and has been confirmed by a joint communiqué. The withdrawal process has already begun, initiated at the request of Niger's military leadership. Statements from both the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of National Defense of the Republic of Niger have corroborated this timeline.
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Increased presence in other African countries • 25%
Reduced overall presence in Africa • 25%
Shift to non-military forms of engagement • 25%
Maintain current levels but relocate bases • 25%
Increase in diplomatic efforts • 25%
Reduction in overall presence • 25%
Shift focus to other regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No presence • 33%
Reduced presence • 33%
Significant presence • 33%
Counterterrorism • 25%
Training and support • 25%
Intelligence gathering • 25%
None • 25%
France • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
None • 25%
Deteriorating relations with Niger • 33%
Strategic realignment of US forces • 33%
Economic considerations • 33%
Increase in military investment by other countries • 25%
Neutral/no change in foreign military presence • 25%
Decrease in overall foreign military presence • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts instead of military • 25%
Increase in regional security threats • 33%
No significant change in security situation • 34%
Improvement in regional security • 33%