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Market
Strategic Outcome of Russian Military Drills by End of 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Enhanced deterrence capability • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Decreased stability in the region • 34%
Analysis from military experts and credible defense news sources
Story
Russia Announces Military Drills Involving Nuclear Weapons in Response to Western Threats
May 6, 2024, 07:06 AM
Russia's Defence Ministry announced plans to conduct military exercises that will include the deployment and use of tactical and non-strategic nuclear weapons. These drills are a response to what Russia perceives as provocative statements and threats from Western officials. The exercises aim to ensure Russian security and will involve various military branches, including aviation and navy forces. Additionally, a Russian diplomat stated that Russia would need to increase its missile arsenal to deter the West further.
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Increased military readiness • 50%
No change in readiness • 25%
Decreased military readiness • 25%
Successful test of new tactical weapons • 25%
Technical failures during drills • 25%
Expansion of drills to other military districts • 25%
Reduction in scale or scope of drills • 25%
Increase in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Reduction in nuclear arsenal • 25%
No change in nuclear strategy • 25%
Shift in focus to conventional weapons • 25%
Increase in military exercises • 25%
No change in military strategy • 25%
Reduction in overt military activities • 25%
Strategic alliances with other nations • 25%
Increased instability • 33%
Stability remains the same • 33%
Improved stability • 34%
Expansion of drills to include strategic nuclear forces • 33%
Reduction in military activities post-drills • 33%
Maintenance of current level of military activities • 34%
Increased military engagement • 33%
Unchanged military engagement • 34%
Decreased military engagement • 33%
Increased tension in the region • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reduction in PLA activities • 25%
Exercises completed as planned • 50%
Exercises not completed as planned • 50%
Significant changes • 33%
Minor changes • 33%
No changes • 33%