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Will US federal immigration policy change by end of 2025 due to Brooklyn subway incident?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from US Department of Homeland Security or related federal agencies
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Previously Deported Migrant Arrested After Sleeping Woman Set on Fire on Brooklyn Subway
Dec 23, 2024, 02:10 PM
A woman died after being set on fire while sleeping on a New York City subway train on Sunday morning. Surveillance video shows a suspect calmly approaching the victim aboard a stationary F train in Brooklyn, using a lighter to ignite her clothing, and then watching as she burned. Police have arrested 33-year-old Guatemalan national Sebastian Zapeta-Calil in connection with the incident. Authorities allege that Zapeta-Calil first entered the United States illegally at the Arizona border in 2018 and was deported shortly after. He re-entered the country at an unknown date and had been residing in New York City's shelter system since April 2023. The New York Police Department is investigating the incident as a homicide.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in deportations • 25%
Introduction of new support programs • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Eased restrictions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Comprehensive reform • 25%
More stringent laws • 25%
Less stringent laws • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
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No • 50%
Stricter policies implemented • 25%
Policies remain similar to 2024 • 25%
More lenient policies • 25%
Significant legal challenges • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
