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Will Trump's administration revoke TPS for Venezuelans before October 2026?
5
Biden•Temporary Protected Status•Venezuelans•Salvadorans•Ukraine•Sudan•United States•Department of Homeland Security•Nicolás Maduro•Venezuela•El Salvador•Donald Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Department of Homeland Security or the White House
Story
Biden Extends TPS for 600,000 Venezuelans, 200,000 Salvadorans Before Trump Takes Office
Jan 10, 2025, 07:45 PM
In one of its final acts on immigration policy, the Biden administration has extended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 600,000 Venezuelans, over 200,000 Salvadorans, as well as nationals from Ukraine and Sudan residing in the United States. The Department of Homeland Security announced the 18-month extension, which will allow Venezuelans to legally remain in the country until at least October 2026 and Salvadorans until September 9, 2026. The TPS extension comes amid ongoing political and humanitarian crises, including Nicolás Maduro's inauguration in Venezuela and environmental conditions in El Salvador that prevent individuals from safely returning. The move provides relief to nearly one million immigrants just days before President-elect Donald Trump takes office vowing mass deportations, putting these protections at risk under the incoming administration.
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Similar markets
Extension for Venezuelans only • 25%
Extension for Salvadorans only • 25%
No further extensions • 25%
Further extension for both • 25%
Revoked for some countries • 25%
Revoked for all countries • 25%
Extended further • 25%
No changes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Domestic political pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved conditions in home countries • 25%
International diplomatic considerations • 25%
Terminate DACA • 25%
Introduce new immigration policy • 25%
Maintain DACA • 25%
Modify DACA • 25%