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Market
Will there be significant political shifts in Israel or Hamas due to the ceasefire proposal by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Changes in both Israeli and Hamas leadership • 25%
No significant leadership changes • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas; credible news sources like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Netanyahu Accepts U.S.-Backed Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Release Proposal
Aug 19, 2024, 05:40 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced in Tel Aviv that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a U.S.-backed bridging proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza. Blinken emphasized that it is now incumbent upon Hamas to accept the proposal to move forward with the ceasefire agreement. The proposal aims to address and reduce differences between Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas. Blinken's comments come amid ongoing efforts to prevent further escalation in the region.
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Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
