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Will there be a change in PKK leadership by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to Turkish pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to internal PKK dynamics • 25%
Other reasons for leadership change • 25%
Announcements from PKK and verification by international news agencies
Story
Erdogan: End Near for PKK in Syria, Turkey Ready for Sudden Military Action
Jan 6, 2025, 04:28 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that the end of Kurdish militants in Syria is approaching, following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last month. Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Erdogan emphasized that Syria's new leadership is determined to eliminate separatists in the country. He also warned that Turkey is prepared to launch a new cross-border operation into Syria against the Kurdish militia if it feels threatened. Erdogan stated that Turkey has shown its firm commitment to its survival and security, hinting at potential military action by saying, 'we can come suddenly one night.' Additionally, Turkey's military reported having 'neutralized' 32 members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Syria.
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Strategic shift • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Other changes • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership structure reformed • 25%
Current leadership consolidated • 25%
Other • 25%
Leadership structure remains unchanged • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Duran Kalkan • 25%
Cemil Bayik • 25%
Murat Karayilan • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
